Immigration Watch: Updates as of March 3, 2026

Immigration policy is shaping more than border statistics. It is also influencing labor market dynamics, broader economic conditions, and contributing to a notable increase in scams targeting immigrant communities.

These developments highlight the far-reaching impact of immigration policy beyond enforcement, affecting employers, workers, and vulnerable populations alike.

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Immigration Policy and the U.S. Labor Market

Recent analysis cited by Fortune and Goldman Sachs describes what some economists are calling an “80% collapse in net immigration” to the United States.

Net immigration averaged approximately 1 million individuals annually throughout the 2010s, declined to roughly 500,000 in 2025, and is projected to fall to approximately 200,000 in 2026.

This decline is largely attributed to increased deportations, expanded visa restrictions, and broader enforcement policies under the current administration.

Impact on Labor Supply

With fewer immigrant workers entering or remaining in the U.S. workforce, labor supply has tightened across multiple sectors.

Industries particularly affected include:

• Healthcare
• Hospitality
• Construction
• Agriculture
• Technology

Employers in these sectors are facing increasing difficulty filling open roles, even as overall unemployment rates remain relatively stable.

Economic Implications

Reduced labor force growth can have several downstream effects:

• Constraining long-term economic output
• Intensifying worker shortages
• Increasing wage pressure
• Delaying business expansion plans

At the same time, slower workforce growth can help stabilize the unemployment rate, as fewer new jobs are required to maintain equilibrium.

However, immigration has historically helped offset aging population trends in the United States. A sustained decline in net immigration may accelerate workforce aging and place additional strain on social and economic systems over time.ontinue shaping immigration enforcement policy in 2026 and beyond.

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Surge in Immigration Scams Since Mid-2025

Immigration-related scams have become increasingly coordinated and sophisticated since mid-2025, according to the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA).

Scammers are exploiting heightened fear and uncertainty driven by shifting enforcement policies to target vulnerable immigrant communities.

Common Scam Tactics

Reported schemes frequently include:

• Paid advertisements on platforms such as Facebook and WhatsApp posing as attorneys or nonprofits
• Promises of “guaranteed” or expedited immigration outcomes
• Upfront payment demands ranging from $5,000 to $30,000

These characteristics are widely recognized as red flags by legitimate immigration practitioners.

Increasing Sophistication

Some scams have become more elaborate and difficult to detect.

In reported cases, fraudsters have:

• Impersonated attorneys or government officials
• Conducted video calls designed to appear official
• Used individuals wearing clothing resembling ICE uniforms
• Mimicked official USCIS language, such as “case accepted” notices

Victims are often pressured to make additional payments after being led to believe their cases have been approved.

Misuse of “Notario” Designation

Another common scheme involves the misuse of the term “notario.”

In many countries, a notary holds legal authority. In the United States, however, a notary public is not authorized to provide legal advice or represent clients in immigration matters.

Scammers exploit this distinction by presenting themselves as “notarios” or “consultants,” misleading individuals unfamiliar with the U.S. legal system.

State attorneys general and legal organizations consistently emphasize that only licensed attorneys and accredited representatives are authorized to provide immigration legal services.

Key Warning Signs

Individuals should be cautious of the following:

• Guarantees of specific immigration outcomes
• Requests for payment via social media, gift cards, wire transfers, or cryptocurrency
• Unsolicited communications claiming case approval
• Inability to verify an attorney’s license through a state bar

Official case updates should always be confirmed through USCIS’s verified systems and communication channels.rces, which many detained immigrants lack.

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Conclusion:

Immigration policy is increasingly influencing not only enforcement trends but also labor market conditions and fraud risks.

A sharp decline in net immigration is contributing to labor shortages and long-term economic concerns, while heightened enforcement activity has created an environment in which scams can proliferate.

These overlapping developments underscore the importance of accurate information, regulatory clarity, and access to qualified legal guidance.

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If you have questions about how these policy changes may affect you or your organization, contact our office for guidance tailored to your situation. To read more about what I’ve written about today and more, you can subscribe to my bi-weekly LinkedIn newsletter, Immigration Watch.